Strategy

How to read a line, size a lineup and pick a difficulty.

Strategy

Why the half-point matters

A projection isn't a prediction of what a player will do. It's the number that splits opinion evenly — and the .5 on the end is doing more work than the digits in front of it.

Strategy

ICE, Standard or LIT

Three versions of the same pick, at three difficulties. Which one you take should follow from how sure you are — not from how much you'd like to win.

Strategy

Three picks or six

More picks pay dramatically more. They also require every single one to land. Here's how the ladder actually scales, and how to think about where you sit on it.

Strategy

Correlation traps

Picking two players from the same team feels like doubling down on a read. It's closer to doubling down on a single outcome — and the downside correlates too.

We use cookies to give you the best experience on our site. See our Cookie Policy.