The blog

Reading the game.

Lines, markets and the mechanics behind a lineup — written for people who want to be right more often.

Strategy

Why the half-point matters

A projection isn't a prediction of what a player will do. It's the number that splits opinion evenly — and the .5 on the end is doing more work than the digits in front of it.

Strategy

ICE, Standard or LIT

Three versions of the same pick, at three difficulties. Which one you take should follow from how sure you are — not from how much you'd like to win.

Strategy

Three picks or six

More picks pay dramatically more. They also require every single one to land. Here's how the ladder actually scales, and how to think about where you sit on it.

Strategy

Correlation traps

Picking two players from the same team feels like doubling down on a read. It's closer to doubling down on a single outcome — and the downside correlates too.

Sports & Stats

Shots on target

It sounds like a measure of how dangerous a player was. It's really a measure of how often they hit the target — and those are different things.

Sports & Stats

Rebounds and pace

The tallest player doesn't get the most rebounds. The player on court when the most shots miss does. That distinction decides most rebound lines.

Sports & Stats

Tennis aces and games

Two of the most common tennis lines behave completely differently. One is about conditions, the other about how competitive the match is.

Sports & Stats

NFL passing yards

A quarterback's yardage says as much about the scoreboard as about the quarterback. Understanding why is most of the work.

Sports & Stats

Reading an MLB matchup

Baseball has more public data than any other sport, and most of it won't help you tonight. Here's the short list that will.

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